Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter

Many people have remarked that Barack Obama attracts unprecedented support from young voters. But this 16-year old Democrat (in spirit, as he is too young to register) supported John Edwards' candidacy until he suspended his campaign.

I started becoming interested in politics because of the Iraq war. I remember first learning of Obama during the summer of 2004, reading of his address during the Democratic National Convention. I remember reading of his record and marveling that such a liberal person could be elected into the Senate by such an overwhelming margin. I remember watching him stand up and speak for voting integrity in Ohio only a few days of being swore into the Senate. I remember reading Dreams from my Father a year ago, and the feeling of inspiration I received from his story. And so it was, when Edwards left, I supported Obama over Clinton by the slightest of margins.

What did I like about Edwards that caused me to support him? I respected his focus on poverty, on health care, on the environment, and in each case he led the policy proposals of the other two candidates. Most of all, I respected his fighting spirit, his positive message that we could and would overcome the problems of the country. I think I trusted him to carry out his proposals, to not later reject them in the spirit of 'compromise.' After all the defeats we've suffered in Congress over the past years, I am tired of hearing of 'compromise.' For how do you compromise between war and peace, between life and death, between truth and lies, between right and wrong?

I have accounts at both Dailykos and here; I've been lurking on both sites for a long time, and this is the first diary I have ever posted. I only started posting comments in significant quantity since around Super Tuesday, and surprisingly, I have attained trusted user status on both sites. I do not think that Barack Obama is the messiah, or that Hillary Clinton is the devil. I think that they are both great candidates, with minor problems, as all candidates tend to have - my first choice was actually Russ Feingold, and I only switched to Edwards after he decided against running. I think that either one of these candidates will become our next president (unless Gore is somehow nominated at the convention), and though its perfectly alright to point out their problems, it is not to just throw already-debunked smears at them.

Which brings me to my main point. I've been reading MyDD for a few years now, and I'm not sure exactly when it happened, but for some reason it's became filled with anti-Obama partisans now. In fact, I only registered here to in order to debunk a diary ridiculing Obama's Super Tuesday caucus wins by confusing state delegate totals and actual votes. Only to see that other people had done so several times already and been ignored.

I know that many people of you have little respect for Dailykos since you believe its filled with anti-Clinton partisans... but really, let me compare the two. What do we have on the Recommended page right now?

  1. A diary telling Obama supporters that Clinton isn't evil. Which I agree with completely, though I think that its a bit pointless as most Obama supporters have probably left here already and never felt that way in the first place.
  2. A diary that cherry-picks facts to smear Obama. This is the kind of diary that I was talking about. Obama is human, as is Clinton, but neither of them are as terrible as the author suggests. This diary does a superb job of debunking some of those smears.
  3. A diary that argues Obama is unelectable. I'm not really sure what its point is, as it argues that neither one can win independent support, meaning that McCain would be the next president although the author does not directly say it. But anyways, this argument does not seem to be supported by any polls or anything other than anecdotal evidence.
  4. This diary, which is truly despicable, compares Obama supporters (and Dailykos in general) to cultists, among other things. It accomplishes this by quoting comments completely out of context, and many of its other accusations are questionable. Still, its on the recommended page.
  5. A diary that denounces Frank Rich for an anti-Clinton story. I am not too familiar with the event in specific, so I will give it the benefit of the doubt.

So, by a conservative measure, 2/5 or 40% of the diaries on the recommended section here (#2 and #4) are pretty much anti-Obama smears. The rest are either anti-Obama in general or pro-Clinton at least.

Dailykos, on the other hand, has on its recommended section a mix of pro-Obama diaries and non-candidate personal stories. And at least on Dailykos, pro-Clinton diaries can make it onto the recommended section. Here, the reverse is quite obviously not the case.

Really, your bashing of Obama has only caused me to distance myself from Clinton. I try to like her, and succeed whenever I stay on Dailykos, but whenever I come here and read all the stupid junk you throw at Obama, its like an instinctive response to distance myself from a candidate who attracts such support. I realize that you feel very passionate about her, but your efforts are pretty much counteractive; you just haven't noticed yet since most people here agree with you. But I think I speak for many former Edwards supporters in my statement.

I have two other pet peeves that I'll cover before I end this diary:

1. Michigan and Florida:
As someone who lives in Michigan, I feel that our delegates should not be counted, that we should hold new caucuses that function as primaries, and our superdelegates should be stripped. The same should go for Florida.

I have been accused of only favoring this option because I support Obama. Actually, I opposed all efforts to move our primary from the beginning, and my views have not changed. Without any way for our national party to punish rulebreakers, there will be nothing to stop our next presidential candidate to be selected by 2009.

The notion that these two contests were truly democratic is also a bit questionable. As has been shown, turnout in Michigan was around 40% of the average, and that of Florida was around 75%. Especially in Michigan, I know many people (including my brother) who did not vote as they knew that their votes would be meaningless, that it was nothing but a glorified straw poll. Even the honorable Senator from New York accepted beforehand that the vote "is not going to count for anything." The exit polls show that many people who would normally have voted for Edwards or Obama voted for Clinton instead. I am not as familiar with Florida, but the same arguments apply. Seating the delegates would be comparable to having the national Republican party declare Ron Paul the winner of their primaries as he won the most straw polls.

Holding a new caucus would solve all these problems. To those who say that Obama has an unfair advantage in caucuses, I point out that it is perfectly possible to have caucus rules be the same as primaries - as was in New Mexico. Stripping away the superdelegates of both states would punish the state party leaders who were actually responsible for this mess. I'll preempt certain arguments by noting that the Florida legislature voted overwhelmingly with bipartisan support to change the date, and in Michigan, the Dingells (who unfortunately represent me) and Carl Levin were the driving force behind moving the date.

2. The national popular vote:
Contrary to claims by many Clinton supporters, Obama is winning the overall national popular vote so far. A tally of the results is below:
Iowa estimate (percentage multiplied by turnout):
Obama - 89828
Clinton - 70429
Obama total is probably underestimated since his strongholds were in the city, which had much less delegates than rural areas.
Nevada estimate:
Clinton - 59635
Obama - 53153
Obama total is probably overestimated since his strongholds here were in the rural areas, which (I assume) had more delegates than urban areas.

So, to simplify matters, I'll assume they cancel out.

New Hampshire:
Clinton: 112,251
Obama: 104,772
South Carolina:
Obama: 295,214
Clinton: 141,217
Super Tuesday primary states (including NM):
Clinton: 7,366,633
Obama: 7,158,261
Super Tuesday caucus states:
Obama - 283,062
Clinton - 129,297
Subtotal:
Obama: 7,984,290
Clinton: 7,879,462
As you can see, even before yesterday, Obama was winning the popular vote by more than 100k votes.

Louisiana:
Obama 220,588
Clinton 136,959
Washington:
I estimated this by multiplying percentages with the estimated turnout of 200,000
Obama: 135,249
Clinton: 62,481
Nebraska:
From caucus turnout estimates, it looks like CNN is reporting actual votes instead of state delegates.
Obama: 25,986
Clinton: 12,396

Virgin Islands: Obama 1,772 Clinton 149

Total:
Clinton: 8,091,447
Obama: 8,367,885
As shown, Obama is ahead in the popular vote by more than 300,000 votes.

Fortunately enough, most Clinton and Obama supporters would not have any problems voting for the other candidate. But in any case, I would advise you to cool your dislike for Obama - after all, there's around a 50% chance that he will become our next candidate.

UPDATE: Added results from the Virgin Islands to the national vote tally.

Display:


Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (2.00 / 2)

Great diary, recommended. I would enthusiastically support either Obama or Clinton if they were the nominee, but I'm really pulling for Obama to win the nomination. I voted for Edwards in Florida (talk about bad luck -- there were no delegates attached to my vote, then my guy drops out the day after the election!).


by College Progressive on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 05:32:35 PM EST

Thanks for the support (2.00 / 2)

I feel the same way. Sorry to hear what happened for you in Florida.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 05:40:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thanks for the support (none / 0)

Oh, it's alright. It was my first Presidential primary, and I don't think my vote was wasted. It will all be worth it if we win in November.

Plus, this primary season is just so exciting!


by College Progressive on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 05:43:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (none / 0)

You didnt included my vote or 500,000 from MI or !.7 million for FL


by boxer4hrc on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 06:18:00 PM EST

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (none / 0)

And I did not include votes from straw polls as well, as nobody ever claimed beforehand that they would count.

I do admit that I just realized that I forgot to count votes from the Virgin Islands. I'll try to find them.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 06:35:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

look jr (1.00 / 1)

listing a hundred different comments that were  blaming hillary for shuster accusing the clintons of whoring out their daughter isnt taking them out of context.

if some people will defend that indefensible comment...the problem IS WITH THEM.

And if these comments are then recommended over and over....maybe, just maybe there's a problem with the site itself.

Here's a hint for the future young fella, when one is in a hole...stop digging!

NO OBAMA SUPPORTER -NONE - SHOULD HAVE DONE ANYTHING BUT 100% CONDEMN THAT REMARK-NONE!

These Obama extremists, these Hllary haters, these "Cultists", just like MSNBC, must tone down their vicous and vile words and attacks.

That SOME didn't, but instead made excuses and pushed political conspiracy tales...hurt their candidate.  I just made this clear to the Sunday visitors here.


Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!
by Seymour Glass on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 06:32:28 PM EST

Re: look jr (2.00 / 1)

The problem is that you're deleting parts of people's comments to distort what they say. As I have pointed out again and again and you have not yet responded to.

Its perfectly acceptable for someone to say that the remark was terrible but Clinton is overreacting. I usually agree with the ACLU viewpoint on this - I disagree with what he say, but he had a right to say it.

There may be a few Obama supporters who found it acceptable, but that would be an extremely rare case.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 06:39:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (1.00 / 2)


 I feel that our delegates should not be counted, that we should hold new caucuses that function as primaries, and our superdelegates should be stripped. The same should go for Florida.
-----

  "I have been accused of only favoring this option       because I support Obama."

-----

REALLY!!!????

NO KIDDIN'?


Offend the Media - Vote for Hillary!
by Seymour Glass on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 06:35:25 PM EST

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (none / 0)

I followed the debate from the start, and opposed it adamantly, before there was any indication that Clinton would win it. And I supported Edwards then, anyways.

Honestly, I think that if both candidates could have campaigned, Obama would have won the state. According to the exit polls, he only would have lost by 11% - and that was when his name wasn't even on his ballot and only his most dedicated supporters would have showed up.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 06:43:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (2.00 / 2)

It must be pretty bad since Edwards dropped out. All of his followers have been displaced. As I stated before, I respect, yet disagree with your opinion. I think every Clinton supporter would love to have you in our camp. Yet, I can understand why you would endorse Obama.


by HillaryKnight08 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 07:36:36 PM EST

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (2.00 / 2)

Great diary! I too am distressed by all the Obama hatred on this blog and really have no idea why it's so. Is it panic that they might lose the nomination? Or something much deeper than that?

I, like many Obama supporters, feel that Hillary would make an excellent candidate. It's just that I don't want our next administration run by an "ol' boy" (so-to-speak) in the classic Clinton mold with the resulting administration barely recognizable as a Democratic one.

But if she does get the nod, I will support her 100%.

I just don't get the anti-Obama slimefest.


by desertjedi on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 07:39:39 PM EST

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (none / 0)

Hillary's vote total in Florida and Michigan:
1,185,359

Obama's vote total in Florida and Michigan:
569,041

Hillary's popular vote lead in Florida and Michigan combined:
616,318

Hillary's total vote lead for all primaries and caucuses to date, assuming that the diarist's figures above are correct:
339,880

Conclusion: Hillary is the one who is winning the popular vote in this election by more than 300,000 votes.


by markjay on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 08:00:37 PM EST

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (none / 0)

Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan...

How do you get votes for him there?


by MrMacMan on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 10:36:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (none / 0)

I was thinking about the math of trying to extrapolate caucus results into population results and I personally concluded that it's just too unrepresentative of real life results. There are too many unknowns. Caucuses reflect the will, stamina, and the organization effort of people on the ground.

So if you'd like to factor in caucus votes into a popular vote match up, you should only add the number of people who actually participated. Extrapolating the percentage onto the entire number of registered Democrats in the state or even the whole population of the state introduces too much error.


While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama
by bowiegeek on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 08:19:27 PM EST

I did do that (2.00 / 1)

The Super Tuesday caucus votes are exact numbers (I can get you everything if you really want them.) The votes from Washington, Iowa, and Nevada are the percentages multiplied by the turnout.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 08:44:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (none / 0)

fantastic diary.  It pretty much sums up my thoughts.


by jmjessemac on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 08:26:21 PM EST

Re: Thoughts from a former Edwards supporter (none / 0)

You Sir, are 16 going on 38! This is an excellent diary, well written, well reasoned and most importantly well intentioned. Thank you for your participation here on MyDD and in our nations future.

Kudos to you,


Hillary Clinton is not a monster,....as far as I know.. We are all Hussein JUNIOR.. ///.. FEINGOLD/BOXER 2016
by Its Like Herding Cats on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 08:55:54 PM EST


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