Crisis in South America: Possible Venezuela-Colombia war

by MILiberal, Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 03:44:32 PM EST

Here's a diary entry that isn't a candidate diary, for once.

Many news agencies from all over the world are reporting that Colombia and Venezuela may go to war. Colombia is one of the few US allies in South America (we've given it billions of dollars in foreign aid, and supplied a few hundred troops as advisers), and Venezuela has one of the largest oil supplies in the Western hemisphere.

The background of this crisis is that Colombia launched an air strike into Ecuador territory to kill Raul Reyes, a top commander of a group of Colombian rebels. Analogies to this action might be if we invaded Pakistan to root out Al-Qaeda and Taliban members, or if (not likely to happen) Cuba launches an air strike into the U.S. aimed at anti-Castro exile terrorists such as Luis Clemente Faustino Posada Carriles.

In any case, Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa is friendly to Hugo Chavez of Venezeula, who has responded to the airstrike by shutting down the Venezuelan embassy in Bogota (capital of Colombia) and ordered ten tank battalions moved to the border of Colombia.

Credit for seeing this goes to ManfromMiddletown of Dailykos.

This could cause most of Latin America to erupt into war - Ecuador has had historical border conflicts with Peru for centuries, although they've recently been resolved, and there are quite a few nations, such as Bolivia, that are at least friendly to Chavez. Or it could settle down into nothing.

Here's what the BBC had to say:

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is sending thousands of troops and tanks to the border with Colombia, marking a sharp escalation in regional tensions.

Speaking on his weekly television show, President Chavez also said Venezuela's embassy in Colombia would close.

Mr Chavez said Colombian President Alvaro Uribe was a "criminal".

He said the killing of Raul Reyes, a top commander of the left-wing Farc rebels, just inside Ecuador on Saturday was a "cowardly murder".

Mr Chavez has been mediating with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - or Farc - to secure the release of hostages the rebels hold, and six have so far been freed under this initiative.

But he lamented the killing of Reyes - whom he called a "good revolutionary" - and at least 16 other Farc rebels when he spoke on his show, "Alo, President".

What do you think?

UPDATE: Fixed stupidly wrong spellings of 'Colombia'. (Thanks, el mito)


Tags: Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, South America, foreign policy (all tags)

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Permalink :: 22 Comments :: Post a Comment


Re: Crisis in South America: Possible Venezuela-Co (2.00 / 0)

Thanks for the diary.  I was kind of surprised to see the headline on CNN and this diary does a good job of explaining the context.

I guess the Bush policy of tough talk towards Hugo Chavez hasn't actually intimidated him after all.  Who'd have thunk it?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 03:51:44 PM EST

Perhaps not (none / 0)

U.S. policy towards Venezuela (and our possible involvement in the failed coup of 2002) seem to have spurred Chavez to buy 100,000 AK-47s and other military equipment to arm civilian militias against possible invasion.

Or that could just be rhetoric and he could be smuggling the weapons to Columbian leftist rebels.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 04:01:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Perhaps not (none / 0)

100,000 AK-47s would be powerless against a US invasion.  That's like 70s technology.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 07:48:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think the point is not for those militia (none / 0)

to fight in the open, but to act guerrilla-style and form an insurgency that would make it impossible for anyone to secure the nation. Think Iraq x100, or really, Afghanistan. Since Venezuela is a lot more difficult terrain than the desert of Iraq.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 10:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Crisis in South America: ..... (none / 0)

First,
liked your diary but I have a pet-peeve the name if the country is Colombia and not ColUmbia :)

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionar y/colombia

This is another example of how Bush's mono centric foreign policy has failed to look at the world as a global intricate web of tensions and interests.

South America is a melange of idiosyncrasies there are far left (Bolivia, Venezuela) center left (Chile and Brazil) and right (Colombia and Paraguay) and everything in between.

For a long time I have thought that Chávez has been creating tensions to somehow rally the nationalism sentiment towards him.

It will be interesting to see the realignment of the countries. Consider that Chile and Venezuela have been buffing up their military forces in the last years.


by el mito on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 04:00:22 PM EST

Good diary (none / 0)

+1


by world dictator on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 05:05:21 PM EST

Re: Crisis in South America: Possible Venezuela-Co (none / 0)

The rebels in question are FARC, right?


by MNPundit on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 05:54:30 PM EST

That's what the article says (none / 0)


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 06:27:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sounds like saber-rattling (none / 0)

MSNBC had a piece on this today as well.  Personally, I'd be astonished if this turned into all-out war between the two nations.  This seems like bravado on the part of Chavez with perhaps the added benefit of giving FARC cover to maneuver inside Venezuela near the border of Colombia.

That said, I found one of the quotes from Chavez today pretty interesting.  He called Colombia the "Israel of South America".  If that sentiment is shared by many in South America, I say buckle your seatbelts.  Then again, Chavez is typically my go-to guy for hyperbole.


by the mollusk on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 06:15:50 PM EST

Union of South American Nations (none / 0)

Anyone know what the Union of South American Nation's role will be in arbitrating the dispute/tensions, or if they will do anything at all?

This incident does not bode well for their integration plans.


by goodleh on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 06:25:29 PM EST

Re: Crisis in South America: Possible Venezuela-Co (none / 0)

I'm surprised to see this happening, but things have evidently been souring rapidly between the two countries.  How will the rest of Latin America respond?  How will Spain respond?


by ejintx on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 06:35:06 PM EST

Re: Crisis in South America: Possible Venezuela-Co (none / 0)

Spain?  I am not sure Spain has much to say...
for now
by el mito on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 06:42:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Crisis in South America: Possible Venezuela-Co (none / 0)

Knowing that Spain and Venezuela aren't exactly the best of friends, I just wonder how Spain's reaction will shape the EU and US reactions.


by ejintx on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 07:09:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Crisis in South America: Possible Venezuela-Co (none / 0)

Chavez is playing the nationalism card to restore his flagging popularity domestically.


by Shaun Appleby on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 10:08:50 PM EST

Re: Crisis in South America: Possible Venezuela-Co (none / 0)

And no prizes guessing where Colombia got the intelligence, and stiffened resolve, to make such an attack.  Don't forget Chavez had recently successfully negotiated the release of six FARC hostages.  This doesn't make him a fair broker, by any means, but points to an escalation of operations which I find it hard to believe that Colombia would have made without the tacit blessing of their current military patron, namely us.

There is an element of danger here, Chavez is calling not only the bluff of Colombia but of the covert US advisers who may be involved in this.  I'm guessing Colombia got a bigger reaction than they bargained for, or were promised.  Stay tuned.


by Shaun Appleby on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 10:23:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think (none / 0)

bush wants this to happen. I think Hugo is starting to act a little more like hitler everyday. I think bush will have an "I told you so moment" and then send in the troops ... "to protect our friends and allies".

Just in time for the elections!


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 11:14:34 PM EST

I don't really think so. (none / 0)

Firstly, Chavez is no Hitler - I'm not sure if you meant that as an insult; he is no saint, but no demon either.

Really, I think that Chavez has the upper hand here and he knows it. It would be impossible for the U.S. to intervene militarily - we just don't have the troops to do so. And if he goes to war with Venezuela, the price of oil would skyrocket.

Not all wars are popular - just successful ones that end quickly. I have the impression that the Venezuelan military is superior to that of Colombia, despite the support we're giving it, and in any case Chavez has equipped militia with 100,000 AK-47s to form an insurgency and resistance movement if necessary. Even if we do find the troops to invade Venezuela, I suspect that it would end something along the lines of Afghanistan.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 11:29:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I meant it (none / 0)

as an insult and as how I see him.

Nobody will ever be the new hitler and I am glad!

What Hugo is doing and has been doing is very similar to how hitler came to power. It is also how many other dictators and such came to power and is even similar to some of the things gdub and his gang have been trying to do here.

I have never liked or trust Hugo any more than I have ever liked or trusted gdub.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 11:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How well do you know the history of South America? (none / 0)

Its a different situation there, and most of it was ruled by military dictatorships for much of the 20th century. They do not have nearly as much history of democracy as we do. Chavez's coup attempt in 1992 was not very democratic, but neither was the coup attempt we tried against him in 2002.

I do not agree with many of his actions, but you have to look at them from the context of the situation. For example, you may dislike his actions against private media in Venezuela. But it should be noted that all of the mainstream Venezuelan media organizations opposed him vociferously from the start of his presidency, and supported the coup attempt against him. And although some of his actions may verge on the dictatorial, he has won numerous elections by decisive margins all certified by international observers.

To use an analogy, I see him as a cross between Huey Long and Franklin Roosevelt, and hope that he's leaning towards the latter.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 11:49:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How well do you know the history of South Amer (none / 0)

No way!

You are MUCH to kind to hugo!

He is no better than gdub and maybe worse.

To compare him with FDR is wrong!


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 11:51:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I see him as a more moderate version (none / 0)

of Huey Long - huge popular support, dictatorial tendencies. I think Long was a lot more authoritarian than Chavez, so I picked Roosevelt as a far more moderate version.

Roosevelt, lest we forget, tried to pack the courts  and interned thousands of Japanese-American civilians. He is no saint, but he is far better than Chavez. I was simply using that for comparison.

What has Chavez done that you disagree with so much, anyways?


John McCain
by MILiberal on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 12:19:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Everyone (none / 0)

PLEASE rec'd this diary!


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 11:16:38 PM EST


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