GA-Sen: Martin within 5 Points of Chambliss

Today certainly is a day for interesting and surprising Senate polling. I noted earlier the numbers showing Andrew Rice down by just a single-digit margin against Jim Inhofe in Oklahoma. Now comes new polling from
Rasmussen Reports
pegging Jim Martin within 5 points of Saxby Chambliss in Georgia -- the second straight survey to show results in that neighborhood.

Jim Martin, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate after defeating Vernon Jones in a run-off primary election earlier this month, is now trailing incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss by just six percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Peach State finds the incumbent ahead of his challenger 48% to 43%.

When "leaners" are included, Chambliss leads 50% to 44%.

Though the latest numbers could represent a temporary primary "glow" for Martin, the poll marks the lowest level of support for the incumbent since tracking of this year's election began. Last month, Chambliss had a 51% to 40% lead over the Democrat.

A poll released last week by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee showed Martin down 6 points, suggesting that Rasmussen's numbers here aren't likely too far off the mark. Now getting from 43 percent or 44 percent to closer to 50 percent will be no easy task for Martin; then-incumbent Democratic Senator Max Cleland received just 46 percent of the vote in 2002 in a race that was assumed to be much closer than that. Nevertheless, it does appear that the support given to Martin in the primary by Chuck Schumer and the folks over at the DSCC is paying off, if not in a race that's necessarily likely to flip at this juncture but at the least one that the Republicans are genuinely going to have to play defense in.



Display:


I wonder if Chambliss will go to the convention (none / 0)

or will he pull a Marsha Brady and cancel, saying "something suddenly came up."

Ha!


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 01:13:10 AM EST

better than mccain sounding like jan brady. (none / 0)

  "Obama, obama, obama!  he gets all the attention, sometimes i wish someone would hit him in the face with a football!  what's that?  he got Davy Jones to play at the democratic convention?  curse you tiki idol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"


Being Normal is for the Mediocre.
by Doug Tuttle on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:28:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GA-Sen: Martin within 5 Points of Chambliss (none / 0)

This is the race I could see being a sleeper - more so than OK, ID, NE, or even NC - maybe even closer than ME.  It's one "macaca" moment from become a toss-up.  You add some coattails in a state we've won at the Senate level recently, and consistently, and this could be the election night surprise.  It would also be the most satisfying after 2002.


by alamedadem on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 01:22:34 AM EST

Re: GA-Sen: Martin within 5 Points of Chambliss (none / 0)

Alaska and Georgia always poll overly friendly to Democrats. In Georgia's case, that was true long before Diebold. I won an election pool in '96 partially due to picking a very tight outcome between Cleland and his underfunded opponent. The polls indicated Cleland would cruise.

Once again, I'll point out the liberal/conservative percentages. I have no idea why websites are content to ignore that fundamental indication. It destroys Party ID or anything similar. Frankly, sites like 538 and even Pollster.com might as well be blowing bubbles if they spit out current state polls without acknowledgment of the state's liberal/conservative tendencies.

Georgia according to the 2004 presidential exit poll was 14% self-identified liberals, 44% self-identified conservatives. That's out of reach. A 50/50 state is basically 20-22% liberals, 32-34% conservatives. In a climate like this with a national lead we have reach beyond that level, but not to 44%.


by Gary Kilbride on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 05:57:30 AM EST

Not to be rude.... (none / 0)

..or argumentative, but that is not how I remember the 1996 Senate race.  Guy Millner, the Repub nominee was anything but underfinanced; he was both self-funded and backed fully by the party machine.  In the end, he outspent Max Cleland.  However, he also had a bitter fight with Johnny Isakson during the primary, and that was key to Cleland's razor-thin success (Cleland was unopposed on the Democratic side).  I also remember polls indicating a Millner edge toward the end.  After all, Dole did beat Clinton in the presidential race that year in Georgia, and that was with Perot pulling 7-8% away from Dole.

In the end, the neocons have peaked in Georgia just as they have in the nation as a whole.  Even the 2006 voter models for Georgia are out of date.  This is a winnable Senate race, if Jim Martin is given the resources.  There are many online ways to contribute, and here's one!

http://www.actblue.com/page/bluegeorgian s


The bad news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority. The good news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority.
by CLLGADEM on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 06:43:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I have to agree (2.00 / 1)

Georgia is conservative, but Chambliss is not exactly loved either.  He won in 2002 by 'swift-boating' Cleland.  Basically, Rove learned how to destroy Kerry in 2004 by looking at what happened in GA in 2002.

And you are correct about Millner.  He kept blowing his millions trying to buy his way into office.  he was anything but underfunded in his races for Senate and Governor.

I don't pretend that Martin has anything better than a 2 in 5 shot at winning this, but it is infinitely better than if Jones were the nominee.  The fact is that Chambliss is going to have to work hard to win and the RSCC is going to have to spend resources here that they can not spend in Oregon or North Carolina now.  

And if we are really lucky, Chambliss will have a Macaca moment.  We all know that he is perfectly capable of them.


by gavoter on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:44:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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