MyDD :: Targeting Omaha

Targeting Omaha

by Jonathan Singer, Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 02:05:59 AM EST

The Democrats have earned electoral votes from Nebraska once in the last 70 years. Could this be the year to change that trend?

I have noted the possibility before. In short, Nebraska is one of two states that allows its electoral votes to be split up according to the winner of of individual congressional districts, and at the least the anecdotal evidence to this point has suggested that Barack Obama has a chance at making a play for one or even two of the state's five electoral votes. Now, polling out of one of those two congressional districts underscores this reality of this possibility.

According to a new survey from Democratic pollster Anzalone Liszt out of Nebraska's second congressional district (7/27-8/2, likely voters), Obama is down just four points -- 46 percent to 42 percent -- behind John McCain. For reference, George W. Bush pulled in somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 percent of the vote in NE-2 back in 2004, so McCain is significantly underperforming in the Omaha-based district. Considering that campaigns often advertise in the Omaha media market in order to reach into Western Iowa, which is in play on the presidential level this year, we may just need to keep an eye on Nebraska for the first time in a long time.

Tags: NE-Pres, Electoral College, Nebraska, White House 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 16 Comments :: Post a Comment

Not many scenarios in which NE (none / 0)

would make much of a difference. Ok, 264 + Nevada would be 269, and NE-02 would push us to 270. It's possible, but....not likely.

Still, yes, it would be terrific to win the district, even if just to force the 'pukes to spend resources t here.

by enthusiast on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 02:39:38 AM EST

Re: Targeting Omaha (none / 0)

It's pretty simple. A lot of states are very cheap to advertise in, but we're usually not competitive so we don't bother. Instead we end up dumping tens of millions into Ohio and Florida. You reach a point where all that extra money doesn't get you much more, diminishing returns. Whereas just a relatively small amount in Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska might move the numbers a surprising amount. And again, everywhere we spend time and resources we force McCain to match us. And we help downballot (they may be small states, but they each get two senators!)

by Skaje on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:33:56 AM EST

Re: Targeting Omaha (none / 0)

Excellent point about the Senators. All of these states in the Midwest who make up the bottom 25% of the total in US Population have been killing us for decades. If we can even pick off a few Senators from places like MN, ND and NE, then that would get us to 60.

A PROUD Hopium user!

by xodus1914 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:28:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Targeting Omaha (none / 0)

Get your heads out of the freaking clouds and quit talking about NE or NM or any other red or purple states. Start worrying about MA and FL and PA and OH.

Obama continues to slide and you are salivating at the possibility of maybe, just maybe, O will win a solid red state with a few paltry EVs. So what if he loses PA and FL and the election, he will have kicked the GOP in the shins with a NE win! How incredibly vacuous.

"When reason sleeps, nightmares become possible"- Goya

by bird52 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:56:32 AM EST

Re: Targeting Omaha (2.00 / 1)

NM is actually really critical. NE apportions their EV votes by district, so you're just talking about Omaha, not the entire state.

When you start out making the "slippery slope" argument, where do you draw the line?

by Jess81 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:17:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Targeting Omaha (none / 0)

Minutia, again. As it is Obama has not locked up the EV rich blue states. His trajectory is nose-diving. You guys are so inside baseball you can't see the field.

by bird52 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:26:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Targeting Omaha (2.00 / 1)

What states are you talking about?

A PROUD Hopium user!

by xodus1914 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:29:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Targeting Omaha (2.00 / 1)

I think it is you who has the vision problem here. Pennsylvania is safe. He does not have a landslide in any poll but he has around a +5 average. Kerry won the state by 4. Plus, the PA polls under represent Black and urban voters so his margin is even higher than what they show.

Obama has a lock on all the Kerry states and has huge leads in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

by Lolis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:11:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Targeting Omaha (2.00 / 1)

Obama is not going to lose any "blue" states. It won't happen. I don't even see him losing PA (unless McCain chooses Ridge- again, this won't happen.)

Stop being a chicken little and look at the grand scheme of things.

Hey guys? You know we won right? You can stop the doooooomsaying now.

by JDF on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 11:49:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

WTF?! (none / 0)

Do you have any evidence whatsoever that Obama is facing losses in NY, CA, IL? I think not.

by GreenHills on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:27:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Targeting Omaha (none / 0)

MA? Are you serious? You think Obama is not going to win that state?

by Lolis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:07:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Targeting Omaha (none / 0)

I am saying O is tanking and his 50 state strategy has made his message garbled and opaque. I'm saying he is losing even the economy voters now. His EV count is not nearly as solid as previously thought, according to some recent converts to realism.

If his staff had a lick of sense, he'd be rolling out the New Deal and hammering it home how the GOP, as a historical fact, create wealth for a few while the Dems create jobs for the many.

When and if he does that, the numbers could turn around. As avid O supporters, I suggest you press the candidate to heed this advice.

by bird52 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:45:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Targeting Omaha (2.00 / 2)

The 50 state strategy has not weakened his message, his message has weakened independent of the field strategy.

We need to have a presence everywhere and not allow unchecked messaging from the opposition, not allow them to build bastions of unfettered dominant support.

I've spent time in many different deep red communities, where Democratic Candidates are nearly extinct and Democratic campaigns are generally of poor quality. We must do better, we must present our argument everywhere or it will be defeated nationally forever.

by mp on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:54:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Heed the advice... (none / 0)

Of an obvious concern troll? Smart democrats don't do that.

John McCain, maverick

by lojasmo on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 11:26:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

With Obama looking more vulnerable by the hour (none / 0)

It would be wiser if his campaign sharpened their message, and focused on states like Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania etc, where he is starting to slip badly...

I see the same echo chamber effect I saw on the blogs in 2004. Convinced not a single Gore voter would turn around 4 years later and choose Bush, not too many were predicting a Kerry loss...today, virtually every piece of bad news is explained away often with amusingly tortured logic, or by the tried and true method of bashing the messenger(Zogby, Gallup etc)...eventually this turns into liberal blogosphere CW...

The fact is McCain has had a very good two weeks, his strategy of belittling Obama's experience and his celebrity has worked...to the point where voters view McCain as more credible on the economy...

Plenty of time for Obama to turn it around, he will get a bump from his VP choice and the convention, but he needs to sharpen his message, and sharpen his attacks on McCain, particularly on the economy...which should be a target rich environment...

I hope we hear no more blather about the media creating a close race to boost ratings...the fact is it is a close race...with McCain pulling ahead for now...

by SaveElmer on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 11:11:33 AM EST

Re: Targeting Omaha (2.00 / 1)

My friend is in charge of the communications shop for Omaha - we have a sharp guy in charge over there =)

by Max and the Marginalized on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 11:57:05 AM EST

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